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On the other hand, if war erupts anew, the Arabs might embargo either the U.S. or all Western nations. Says Saudi Interior Minister Prince Fahd, 53, who is Faisal's brother and likely successor: "We would hate to impose another embargo. But in a war, when you feel you are in danger of dying, you may do anything. If war breaks out again, it will be not only the Arabs and Israelis who are damaged, but the world as a whole." If Western Europe were embargoed now, it would draw down its stockpiles (good for 60 days or more in each country), buy oil from non-Arab countries and probably go to immediate rationing. It might well hold out for six months without serious discomfort. Quite probably, however, Europe and Japan would put extreme pressure on the U.S. to halt military aid to Israel. Or, if threatened by complete economic breakdown and perhaps social upheaval, some Western nation or nations might intervene in Middle East oil lands. In any case, there is virtual consensus among Western policymakers that Israel must give up almost all of its 1967 conquests and accept a homeland for the Palestinians. Otherwise, wars are likely to continue, and Israel cannot win the last round against 120 million Arabs enriched and armed by oil money.
The Only Alternative: Interdependence
One ray of hope in the oil crisis is that the two sides at least will begin to talk with each other in 1975. The Middle East producers have long called for a summit meeting with the oil importers from the West and the developing world. The French have strongly favored a conference. Kissinger has held out for a delay until the consumers are more firmly united, fearing that countries that are deeply in debt and heavily dependent on oil imports would easily bend to OPEC's bidding. At Martinique three weeks ago, President Ford and French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing struck a compromise calling for a series of meetings: first a general feeling-out between OPEC and the consumers, then a number of meetings among consumers to work out their common position, and finally a tripartite summit, probably this autumn.
At that summit, OPEC leaders want to discuss not only oil but also the prices of other products. They aim to get an "indexing" agreement under which their oil prices would go up from the already high base as the prices of their own imports rise. Says Kissinger: "The best thing that can happen next year —and in fact I think the best will happen—would be that we would achieve consumer solidarity and then have a conference with the producers. That, together with energetic conservation measures and energetic development of alternative resources, may lead perhaps to a lowering of the oil price in return for long-term stability of the price. And at a lower price level, we would be prepared to consider indexing."
A most positive step would be for oil producers and consumers to seek common and reciprocal interests going far beyond energy. The producers should be given greater responsibilities and more high offices in international councils. For example, they should get far more than the 5% of the voting strength that they now have in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This would give them a larger voice in setting international monetary policies, which they deserve, and would also oblige them to put up