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Prime Minister Manley is not totally convinced. "We have not said that destabilization in Jamaica is the result of deliberate top-level U.S. Government policy," he told TIME Correspondent Bernard Diederich last week. "Dr. Kissinger has said that it is not so, and that may be so. Nonetheless, what upsets people now is that assurances were being given Allende and his ambassadors up to a few weeks before [his death]−bland assurances saying 'Of course we're not doing that'−and yet we now know it was happening."
Specifically, Manley blames the violence on his right-wing political enemies who are trying to impede Jamaica's path to socialism. If, in fact, they do get help from American sources, he claims, it is partly because of his friendship with Castro (who may visit Kingston in August) and partly because Jamaica backed the pro-Soviet regime of Agostinho Neto in Angola. The U.S., argues Manley, "has been resentful of any country in the Western Hemisphere that came out in support of Neto and the Cubans against the South Africans. They have been very bitter about it."
A more plausible explanation for Jamaica's unrest is Manley's efforts to turn the island republic into a socialist state. Even the Prime Minister's supporters concede that the economy is in a shambles. Unemployment is running at about 22%, and is particularly high among urban youth, who police say are guilty of most of the recent murders. The country's foreign exchange earnings, principally from bauxite, sugar and tourism, are down 40 to 60% below last year's total of $400 million, and reserves have dropped from more than $102 million in November to less than $38 million. Wealthy Jamaicans have illicitly exported perhaps $200 million abroad; some of the currency has been smuggled out in fake cigarettes, fortune cookies and pork carcasses. Says one member of an intelligence force trying to halt the financial outflow: "It has replaced the smuggling of ganja (marijuana) to Grand Cayman, Miami and Canada."
Chance of Winning. In addition, many wealthy Jamaicans have set up second residences abroad. Whether they emigrate will depend on the outcome of the next general election (probably in February). Manley's People's National Party currently has 35 seats in Parliament, to 17 for the opposition Labor Party, led by Edward Seaga. An able economist, Seaga faces the ethnic disadvantage of his Lebanese ancestry; he is light-skinned in an overwhelmingly black nation. Nonetheless, he stands a good chance of winning if there is more violence and the economy continues to stagger. Many Jamaicans are convinced that will be the case. In the sad words of a current hit by Ernie Smith, one of Kingston's top reggae singers, "As we fight one another fe de power and de glory, jah kingdom goes to waste."