(3 of 6)
USE MORE FERTILIZER. Each ton applied to an underdeveloped country's grain crops could increase the harvest by ten tons. Yet the worldwide shortage—expected to last about five more years even for developed nations—has made fertilizer too expensive for the L.D.C.s. One immediate answer might be the creation of some kind of fertilizer pool, which has been suggested both by the FAO and U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. It would contain fertilizer (or cash to buy fertilizer) contributed by the industrial and oil-possessing states. Needy developing countries could apply to the pool for outright grants of fertilizer or buy it at concessional rates.
The world must also expand its fertilizer productive capacity to meet the expected surge in demand by the end of the century—up at least 300% from the current estimated 80 million tons annually. Ideally, many of the new plants should be located in the L.D.C.s. However, the factories cost about $60 million each to build and are complicated to run. Because they use a great amount of energy, some of the plants in India are operating at barely 50% of capacity.
INCREASE THE SUPPLY OF WATER. From Central America to Asia, the main limit on the wider use of miracle seeds is the lack of water. The FAO estimates that global demand for water will expand 240% by the century's end, yet the easiest big dam-and-irrigation projects have already been completed. The only option may be to use available water more efficiently. For example, wheat yields more calories than rice from the same input of water; in terms of water, 1 Ib. of beef is 2,500% more expensive than 1 Ib. of bread.
IMPROVE FOOD DISTRIBUTION AND STORAGE. At least one-quarter of the world's food disappears between the field and the table. In many L.D.C.s, food is poorly warehoused and is easy prey for rats, insects, fungus and mildew. If the capital were available to upgrade transport systems, build concrete warehouses and modernize marketing methods, there could be a great increase in the food available for underdeveloped countries.
DEVELOP NEW VARIETIES OF CROPS. Of the nearly 80,000 edible species of plants, only about 50 are cultivated on a large scale. Scientists are trying to do for other grains what the miracle seeds did for wheat and rice. High-lysine corn (a hybrid whose soft kernel contains 66% more protein than regular hard-kernel corn) and Triticale (a hybrid of wheat and rye used for livestock feed) are already in limited use. Research is under way in the U.S. to find high-yield strains of millet, barley and oats and to rearrange leaf configurations on plants to increase their photosynthetic efficiency and allow them to absorb more sunlight.
Development of new foods is a long, tedious process. Last year scientists at Purdue University bred a high-lysine variety of sorghum—but only after working on it for seven years and analyzing 10,000 varieties of the grain. It could be another ten years before that high-protein type will be ready for planting on commercial scale. After the new foods are developed, they sometimes do not satisfy local tastes. For example, residents of India were not satisfied with the soft-kernel, protein-rich, high-lysine corn, preferring their traditional flinty, hard corn. Cautions Economist Johnson: "Even very poor people have their likes and dislikes."