By 1990, the U.S. will probably have about doubled its present energy consumption. Domestic oil and natural gas, which today account for two-thirds of the nation's energy, will be able to meet only 40% of demand. Nuclear, hydro, solar, geothermal and other nonfossil fuel sources will take care of another 20%. To fill the remaining 40% gap, the nation faces two likely choices. It can import much more oil and gas—and pay heavily in terms both of balance of payments and political dependence on foreign countries. Or it can turn to coal, which now provides 20% of U.S. energy —and pay heavily for developing this rich but problem-ridden resource. Right now, the betting is on coal.
The main reason is that 3 trillion tons of coal are scattered from Pennsylvania to Washington State, from Alabama to Alaska. If a quarter of the known reserves can be tapped, they will satisfy the nation's domestic energy needs for 200 to 300 years, with ample to spare for export. Says Carl Bagge, president of the National Coal Association: "We are the Persian Gulf of the world's coal supplies."
To exploit that lode, the industry has to change radically. Estimated demand will grow this year by 10%, to 660 million tons, but domestic output will not keep up with it. Forecasts for 1974 production range from a repetition of last year's 590 million tons to 650 million tons. Indeed, several New England utilities have already contracted to buy coal from Poland. The industry is having some trouble raising money for expansion. Investors worry particularly about the three gritty problems that bedevil coal:
GETTING IT. Coal is often difficult and dangerous to mine. In 1969, Congress passed the National Coal Health and Safety Act to force improvements in mine conditions. These were vividly recalled by Arnold Miller, president of the United Mine Workers, in a recent speech. Old miners, said Miller, "labored their lives away in the bowels of the earth and reaped as their reward a back bent like a stunted tree and lungs that did not work because they were full of coal dust." The law has started to change the situation, but it also has sharply increased operating costs and caused some 500 marginal mines to close. Productivity per worker plunged from a 1969 high of 16.5 tons a day to twelve tons.
To solve the problems, the coal companies have had to put a new emphasis on mechanization and strip mining. Using giant shovels, the companies can peel back the earth and gouge out the underlying coal with a minimum of workers and a maximum of productivity. Stripping, mainly in Appalachia, now accounts for about half of all U.S. coal production, and the proportion is likely to rise. All the major companies have lately bought or leased rights to hundreds of millions of tons of coal that lie close under the plains of the Dakotas and Montana, the semidesert of New Mexico, the basins of Colorado and Wyoming.