The Economy: A Blurry Banner for Phase II

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Many economists and businessmen, however, were more inclined to stress the indefinite nature of much of the program. "Until I see the flesh on the skeleton, I can't tell whether the girl is beautiful or not," quipped Arthur Okun, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. Joseph Pechman, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution, complained that Nixon "is providing machinery, but not yet a policy for restraining wages and prices." In the judgment of George Sheinberg, treasurer of Bulova Watch Co., the impact of the program "is going to depend almost entirely on the people whom Nixon appoints. He needs more men like Connally—people who really take hold and are effective in a short time."

The Buck Blocker. The program indeed seems largely designed both by and for John Connally. The Phase II structure was planned mostly by Budget Boss George Shultz and Economic Adviser Herbert Stein, and it reflects their horror of controls imposed directly on the economy by Government officials. A mild joke in the White House is that "the only reason that Phase II may work is that the people who designed the controls do not believe in them." It was Connally, however, who insisted that the Administration commit itself to the simple objective of lowering price increases to a 2% or 3% rate about a year from now. He did so against the advice of some members of the Cost of Living Council, notably Shultz, who wanted no numerical guideline at all, and against others who wanted specific, low figures for wages and prices to be reached quickly. A program that would move toward a fairly clear goal, but in ways and at a pace to be defined pragmatically as it proceeded, especially suited Connally's talents as a maker of coalitions and manipulator of pressure groups.

Connally put some of those talents on display at his jammed press conference the day after the President's announcement. He airily asserted that the Pay Board and Price Commission have "a world of time" in which to formulate wage and price standards before the freeze ends Nov. 13—in full knowledge that his Cost of Living Council has authority to promulgate temporary rules if they fail. He disclaimed any role as economic czar, contending that the COLC would not "veto" any standards formulated by the other bodies—and managed to make his stand sound forceful. "We will not let these groups pass the buck up to us," he said sternly. "If the Price Commission permitted prices that patently were exorbitant." he added, "or if the Pay Board announced their own goal of a 6% rate of inflation instead of 2% to 3%—well, at that point we'd lock horns." His self-assured manner left no doubt who would win.

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