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Diplomatic observers are divided on whether or not the latest round of terrorism might burgeon into full-fledged civil war. The heavily armed Montoneros may have as many as 3,000 combatants plus 100,000 noncombatant supporters. Argentina's other major terrorist group, the 20,000-member (1,000 combatants) Marxist People's Revolutionary Army (E.R.P.), has also announced a policy of bombs and bullets. Last week they vowed to kill 16 army officers to avenge the deaths of 16 guerrillas following an abortive arms raid on army headquarters in Catamarca province.
Banned Meat. With the Montoneros and the E.R.P. ranged against it, the 35,000-member federal police force may well find it virtually impossible to maintain order. Both the government and the military would prefer to keep the 75,000-man Argentine army out of any anti-guerrilla campaign, rather than risk action that might broaden popular support for the Montoneros by making them seem like romantic underdogs.
Compounding Mrs. Perón's difficulties, the violence comes at a time when Argentina is suffering serious economic setbacks. Inflation, which Perón had reduced last year from an annual rate of 80% to about 20% by a comprehensive wage-price freeze, has started to accelerate again and is now close to 40%. Shortages of items from soap to cars developed when manufacturers started hoarding their merchandise rather than selling it at unprofitable frozen prices. Widespread strikes further aggravated the downward spiral. In mid-July, Argentina began losing an estimated $40 million a month in crucial sales when the European Economic Community banned all meat imports until the end of October.
The economic slump is only coincidentally tied to Mrs. Perón's accession to power, but it nevertheless handicaps the chances of her political survival. Despite the mounting challenges to her government, la Presidente seems more determined than ever to stay in power. In a dramatic balcony appearance at an outdoor rally held last Friday to boost national morale, Mrs. Perón asserted that "nothing or no one will keep me from making Argentina happy." It was telling, however, that only 60,000 of the 2.5 million workers who had been given time off to attend the rally showed up. The fear of violence apparently kept many of the others away.