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THE FORD GAFFE THEORY
Motivated primarily by genuine compassion for Nixon, Ford took a superficial look at the other factors—the legal ramifications, the political impact, the public reaction—and failed to think them through. Buoyed by his Honeymoon reception and seeking a Trumanesque reputation for decisiveness, he acted immediately and impulsively on his determination to pardon Nixon. If eventually he was going to pardon him, as he had in effect indicated he would in his Aug. 28 press conference, then why not now? A diehard defender of Nixon's innocence until the ample contrary evidence became unchallengeable, Ford by this theory appreciated neither the seriousness of Nixon's transgressions nor the prevailing public concern that justice should run its course at least until all the truth is out.
Once he opened negotiations with Nixon, Ford's emissary, Washington Attorney Benton Becker, proved no match for Nixon's wily attorney, Herbert J. ("Jack") Miller Jr., or for the hard-nosed Nixon aide Ronald Ziegler. The Nixon protectors spurned all suggestions that Nixon confess or surrender control of his tapes. Although Nixon had no practical bargaining leverage, Ford meekly yielded. Columnist Mary McGrory wrote last week that "Ford is still Vice President where Nixon is concerned." Ford does indeed have a reputation for speaking before an issue is thought through, and the fact that he apparently consulted very few people on the pardon makes this theory more believable.
THE NIXON HEALTH THEORY
Ford had been advised that Nixon simply could not stand the suspense of worrying about a potential indictment or the strain of a trial if one were eventually held. Both current Ford Aide Alexander Haig and former Nixon Counsel J. Fred Buzhardt had expressed their concern to Ford about Nixon's emotional problems, which were beginning to manifest themselves in physical ailments. Ford, whether accurately or not, came to believe that Nixon was seriously ill, deeply depressed and might even die unless he was soon relieved of some of his legal worries. Nixon's doctors did confirm a new blood clot last week (see box page 17), but part of Nixon's pain and discomfort is clearly the self-inflicted result of his reluctance to obey his doctor's advice for treating his thrombophlebitis. Ford's interjection of Nixon's health into his speech is the best evidence in support of the Nixon health theory.
THE PREVENTIVE POLITICS THEORY
Once Ford learned that a Nixon trial would probably not begin until late in 1975 and that appeals might take even longer to resolve, he knew that he might face the pardon issue uncomfortably close to his own campaign for election to the presidency in 1976. Rather than raise all of the old Watergate divisions through a pardon then, he decided to act now, clearing his personal political decks of the Nixon issue well in advance, freeing himself from having questions on Nixon raised at every press conference. There is no evidence for this theory at all, other than Ford's manifest desire to win election in his own right and the fact that he is a highly political animal.
THE ATOMIC BOMBSHELL THEORY
This lurid theory postulates the existence of