(2 of 2)
Psychohistory, in fact, is nothing new. Numerous widely respected behavioral analyses have been done on world figures, notably Psychoanalyst Erik Erikson's profiles of Martin Luther and Gandhi, and Duke Political Scientist James David Barber's The Presidential Character, which contends that "active-negative" Presidents like Nixon face crises by "riding the tiger to the end." M.I.T. History Professor Bruce Mazlish adds in his 1972 psychohistory, In Search of Nixon, that because two of the President's brothers died in their youth, he continually struggles with "death fears"; to confront these, he may subconsciously seek out crises.
Perhaps the most famous behavioral analysis was the Hitler study done by Dr. Walter Langer, William's brother, for the U.S. Government during World War II. Declassified in 1972 and published as The Mind of Adolph Hitler, Langer's work proved uncannily accurate; he not only predicted Hitler's suicide, but also that "each defeat will shake his confidence and ... he will probably try to compensate for his vulnerability by stressing his brutality." In fact, Hitler began ordering mass slaughters of the Jews as his military position crumbled. But even Langer calls psychiatric profiles "90% guesswork."
Encouraged by Langer's accuracy, the Government has been using psychiatric profiles as a tool ever since. Though Ellsberg was the first U.S. civilian to get the treatment, intelligence experts regularly do analyses of world leaders, including Chairman Mao, Indira Gandhi, Archbishop Makarios, as well as Soviet Party Boss Leonid Brezhnev, Defense Minister Andrei Grechko and Military Theorist A.A. Sidorenko. Says one official: "Everything a person has written, what he reads, who influences him, his sex life, ailments and prognosis—everything goes into the making of a profile."
Many diplomatic sources consider these reports invaluable in negotiating with a foreign leader. Says one: "The profiles provide pertinent and practical guidance in sizing up a guy."
Industry too has experimented with psychiatric profiles, requesting them on likely executive talent. In recent years, however, the business has slumped. Alfred Marrow, president of the National Academy of Professional Psychologists, explains that "the profiles turned out to be useless" because there was little relationship between their conclusions and an executive's performance on the job. James Clovis of Handy Assoc., an executive-recruitment firm, reports that companies are now more interested in their own personal evaluation of a job candidate and his performance records than what psychologists might say. Perhaps most important, many firms have an understandable fear: that behavioral analyses will break the laws guaranteeing a citizen's right to privacy.