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Cold War. The longer-run impact of the Arabs' oil siege is difficult to assess. Selective embargoes of the type that they are trying to impose are tough to enforce. The full effects of the Arab actions will not be felt for some time, since the oil-consuming countries generally have two months or more of oil supplies in reserve and another month's supply or so headed toward them aboard tankers at sea.
Much will depend on how closely the West cooperates to share its oil—and the portents are unpromising. European members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last week discussed activating a standby sharing plan drawn up during the 1956 Middle East war, but decided not to do it yet, partly out of fear of further antagonizing the Arabs. More disquieting, The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg set up a licensing system for petroleum exports—even though the European Common Market Commission warned them that any restriction of exports would violate the Treaty of Rome that created the Common Market. Italy, which has the largest refining capacity in Europe, already had banned heating oil and kerosene exports to countries outside the Common Market.
The U.S. apparently can expect little aid. Canada, the biggest foreign supplier, has slapped a 40¢-per-bbl. tax on oil exported to the U.S. as a means of keeping its fuel at home. (Taking advantage of the tight supply situation, Venezuela, the nation's second largest foreign source of oil, kicked up prices 56%, and Nigeria announced that it would soon post an increase.) So the U.S. must take drastic conservation measures, and some already are beginning. With Government encouragement, three airlines—American, TWA and United—agreed to save jet fuel by canceling 82 flights daily. Round-trip flights between New York and Chicago will be reduced to 55 daily from 70; Philadelphia-to-Los Angeles round trips will be cut to three daily from six.
Much more belt tightening will be needed, and recognition of that fact last week forged a strange political alliance between Nixon Administration officials and Washington Senator Henry Jackson, a contender for the 1976 Democratic presidential nomination. They agreed to cooperate in pushing emergency fuel legislation through Congress. Jackson has introduced a bill that would authorize the President to declare a national fuel emergency if U.S. demand exceeds supply by 5% or more. The bill calls for many feasible conservation measures. Domestic wells would be required to pump oil faster than their "maximum efficient rates," a move that would risk damaging the oilfields by reducing the underground pressure. Electric utilities that could do so would have to convert from burning oil to coal—at the cost of more pollution. Highway speed limits would be lowered to 50 m.p.h.; motorists would be required to get regular engine tune-ups and would be encouraged to form car pools.
The Administration disagrees with some specifics of the Jackson bill, but agrees that some such comprehensive program is needed. Indeed, though the Administration regards rationing of oil products as a last resort, it may announce this week that it is getting the machinery ready just in case. At week's end, President Nixon said that the U.S. already has "contingency plans" for rationing.