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But the most important new element in the Arab world—for the Arabs themselves, for the Israelis and for all the industrialized nations—is the revolution being wrought by oil. Exactly what political changes will accompany this phenomenon cannot be predicted, though Arnold Hottinger believes that the more populous "frontline" states like Egypt will use every possible means—including subverting the conservative, oil-rich regimes—to see that a good share of the oil revenue is channeled into the struggle against Israel. "They would attempt," Hottinger speculates, "to evolve an oil policy designed to punish the friends of Israel and to benefit the friends of the Arabs, who in that case would almost certainly include most or all of the Communist world."
Whether the Arab states could effectively punish the Western powers by such means is widely disputed. But it is clear that the revolution in oil, while it could provide the Arab nations with an Aladdin's lamp of riches for development, can also increase the volatility of a historically unstable region. Its advent makes even more urgent the need for a break in the impasse.