(4 of 5)
Robin Hood. In spite of McGovern's Robin Hood tax proposals, which would hit the rich and benefit the poor, he has lost as much ground among the lower economic groups as he has among wealthier voters. Voters earning less than $7,500 now give Nixon a 22% margin over McGovern, exactly double the margin of a month ago. Nixon increased his spread by 15 points among blue-collar workers and 5 points among union members. Surprisingly, Nixon stretched his lead further among middle-income voters ($7,500 to $15,000) than among the rich ($15,000 and over), who stand to lose the most from McGovern's economic policies—possibly because of McGovern's strength among rich but liberal professionals.
For McGovern, the worst news in the poll is that Nixon seems to be pulling the country to the right, while voters perceive McGovern drifting to the left. At present, three out of four voters describe themselves as either conservative or moderate, and almost the same proportion see Nixon in one of those two stances. Yet they view McGovern as going in the other direction, in spite of all his attempts to stake out a more nearly middle-of-the-road position. Back in July and August, only 22% of the voters called McGovern radical. Now 30% see him as such, while only 1 % of the voters put themselves in the same category. Rather than getting in step with the average American voter, McGovern seems further out of step than ever.
In all probability, the most frustrating finding for McGovern is that the majority of voters agree with him that Nixon should come out of hiding and participate in a nationally televised debate. Such a confrontation now seems as unlikely as those other developments the McGovern camp was hoping for —major Republican goofs, the explosion of the Watergate scandal, an upheaval in Viet Nam. There are still six weeks left, of course—plenty of time for something major to happen in this already volatile campaign. Polls, it is always necessary to remember, do not predict, they only describe the voters' state of mind at the moment. But if the election were held today, McGovern would join those presidential aspirants buried under the country's historic landslides—Henry Clay, Horace Greeley, Alton Parker, James Cox, Alfred Landon, and of course Barry Goldwater.
Supposing the election were held today, whom would you vote for, Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?
Nixon McGovern Not sure Nixon's gain (or loss) over first poll
TOTAL 62% 23% 15% 11+
California 59 28 13 9+
Texas 71 18 11 14+
Michigan 65 21 14 +12
Illinois 59 23 18 +3
Ohio 63 23 14 +10
Pennsylvania 61 21 18 +18
New York 57 26 17 +14
Other Nine States 62 22 16 +8
Republican 93 1 6 +8
Democrat 43 40 17 +11
Ind./Other 61 18 21 +6
Male 63 24 13 +7
Female 61 22 17 +13
18-24 Total 46 43 11 + 8+
18-24 College 40 53 7 + 2+
18-24 Non-College 49 34 17 + 5
25-49 65 21 14 +10
50-64 61 21 18 +3
65 & Over 65 19 16 +20
Blacks 20 55 25 +28
Catholic 58 24 18 +10
Protestant 69 18 13 +9
Jewish 32 52 16 -13
Irish 66 20 14 +13
German 66 19 15 -5
East European 46 33 21 0
Italian 68 21 11 +28
Blue Collar 59 23 18 +15
White Collar 69 18 13 +13