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OIL: In 1970, the U.S. consumed 710 million tons (30% of world consumption), or 15 million bbl. a day. By 1980 it will demand between 20 and 25 million bbl., but U.S. production, now around 10 million, will rise to only 11 million from presently known reserves. In addition, Alaska could provide 2,000,000 bbl. per day if the currently planned (and hotly contested) pipeline is built; newly found offshore deposits could swell output if environmental objections can be met. Even so, industry sources predict that there will be a gap, and to fill it, the U.S. will have to lower its import quotas and buy more oil from Canada, South America, North Africa and the Middle East. Possible cost: about $15 to $20 billion a year, a vast drain on the balance of payments. Aside from cost, foreign supplies are uncertain. Other people like the Europeans and the Japanese want their share too. Already, eleven major oil-producing countries have banded together to bargain for better terms: not only higher prices but more local participation. Last week, Iraq's governing Revolutionary Council, in a dispute over production quotas, announced the nationalization of the London-based and partly American-owned Iraq Petroleum Co., which provides about 10% of Middle East output. Political disputes bring added risks. Says Colorado Representative Wayne Aspinall, chairman of the House Interior Committee: "I am truly frightened by the potential conflict between pro-Israel sentiment in this country and our increasing reliance on Arab oil. I believe the U.S. is about to be caught in a Middle Eastern power play."
NATURAL GAS: The U.S. consumed 22.1 trillion cu. ft. last year (49% of the world's consumption). Proven domestic reserves are down to 247 trillion cu. ft. (from a high of 289 trillion in 1967). Though there is probably a lot more gas to be found in the U.S. and offshore, exploration costs are high, and drillers often have to go two or three miles under the surface to reach new supplies. U.S. gas companies say they cannot even fill current requirements at officially regulated rates, and three major companies have negotiated to buy $10 billion worth of gas from Algeria between now and 1997.
COAL: The U.S. in 1970 burned 530 million tons of its most abundant fuel (known reserves: 2 trillion tons). But coal is also the dirtiest fuel (processes for scrubbing out pollutants will add to costs), and industry leaders argue that they must rely on strip mining, the greatest destroyer of the American countryside. To use other means to get the 254 million tons that were stripped from the earth in 1970 would have cost, they say, an extra $500 million in wages.