World: Toward the Japanese Century

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welcome more active Japanese diplomatic participation in the region, few relish the idea of a greater military role for their former conquerors. Says Indonesian Foreign Minister Adam Malik: "An armed Japan which grows into another big military power would certainly make many Asian countries apprehensive and insecure." Asian leaders note that the Japanese today command more firepower than the combined imperial forces did during World War II. They know that the country will soon start building 105 Phantom jets under license from the U.S., and that a submarine fleet is in the talking stage. And they have heard talk that Tokyo may one day send warships to patrol the narrow Strait of Malacca to protect its merchant fleet from Indonesian pirates.

For all that, a sizable Japanese military presence is not likely to materialize overnight. Article 9 of the Peace Constitution imposed by the U.S. restricts Japan to defensive forces. To be sure, "defensive" can be interpreted broadly, as both Washington and Moscow have demonstrated; but so far, Japan's Self-Defense Force numbers only 259,400 men, all volunteers and all entitled to quit any time they want to. The searing memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and Japan's signing of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty three weeks ago seem to rule out a nuclear role for the foreseeable future. Japan is technologically capable of building a nuclear arsenal, but such a move would increase Japan's bargain-rate $1.6 million defense bill, less than 1% of its G.N.P. compared with 9.2% for the U.S.

One U.S. diplomat in Asia suggests that Japan may be the first nation to score a breakthrough—a superpower without superweapons. Almost certainly, however, a nuclear-armed China will eventually persuade Japan to exorcise its post-Hiroshima trauma and begin building its own nukes. Unlike Peking, Tokyo has a head start toward a delivery system; two weeks ago, the Japanese became the fourth member of the exclusive space club (others: the U.S., the Soviet Union and France) by putting a 20-lb satellite into orbit from a launch pad on Kyushu Island.

A key factor in Japan's postwar success has been its political stability. The last election produced a voter turnout of only 68%—low for Japan. One reason was that the Liberal Democrats, who have ruled almost without a break since the occupation, looked like certain winners (and in fact won an overwhelming 300 of 486 Diet seats). The Socialists once gave promise of becoming an effective opposition, but they are still promoting a shopworn Marxism that does not sound too magnetic to Japan's increasingly affluent workers.

Engulfed in Mist

The only parties to improve in the last Diet election were the Communists (up ten seats, to 14) and the Komeito

(Clean Government) party, the political arm of the Buddhist Soka Gakkai (Value-Creation Society), which went from 25 to 47 seats. Komeito is building a growing following among blue-collar urban voters by mixing religion, show business and concern for close-to-home issues such as pollution and prices.

Because Japan is still very much a country of slowly Cemented consensus, no swift changes are in prospect. Men who are now in their 60s will rule well into the 1970s, and they are cautious and uncertain. "Today's leaders," says Kyoto University Professor Kei Waka-izuma, "resemble mountain climbers who, finding themselves