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What most interests U.S. officials is how Ho's successors will prosecute the war. "Premise No. 1," says a member of the Administration in Washington, "is that nobody knows anything about what will happen now—and if they say they do, they are lying." There is little doubt that Ho's departure will have a profound effect. Accordingly, the sentiment among many responsible officials in Washington is to "let the dust settle," in Dean Acheson's unforgettable words on China in 1949, rather than to seize the initiative. There are, however, other alternatives. At the extremes, the U.S. could either step up the war and resume the bombing of the North in an attempt to stampede the new leadership—or pull out completely, trusting in the South Vietnamese to cope with a Ho-less foe. No one in the Government seriously advocates either course.
Inaction, however, seems unwise to many experts outside the Administration. In Saigon, Professor Zbigniew Brzezinski, an adviser to former President Johnson, said that Ho's death had provided a "timely moment" for the U.S. and South Viet Nam to propose negotiations on a ceasefire. Brzezinski argued that the death of a Communist leader creates a period of "intense political conflict" during which there is an opportunity to focus attention of the successors on "initiatives from abroad." At the very least, he said, "it is always possible that some faction will argue that a positive response ought to be made." In Paris, Professor Philippe Devillers, a longtime specialist on Viet Nam, warned that the Paris negotiations would not progress "until the U.S. has accepted the principle of the total withdrawal of troops." Once this word is given, Devillers reasoned, "you unjam the negotiations and everything can be negotiated." He added, however, that the U.S. should act soon: "Now is the crucial moment. If they [the Americans] make no gesture within the next 15 days, the conclusion which will be drawn at Hanoi is that decidedly the only course is to fight, that they can only continue the war to the bitter end."
Please Acknowledge
In private Paris talks with their North Vietnamese counterparts, U.S. officials have said flatly for weeks that they want to withdraw all American troops from Viet Nam as soon as possible. In return, the U.S. has asked only that Hanoi acknowledge this declaration of intent and get the negotiations moving—so far without any result.
The fact is that the North Vietnamese were reluctant either to suggest or to respond to new initiatives while Ho lay dying. As Historian Lacouture pointed out last week, the key men in Hanoi today are "the executors of Ho Chi Minh's political testament, which really is an appeal to resist to the end." If they are faithful lieutenants, they will not be quick to abandon his policies—or his dreams.