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Drawing the Line. The Big Three negotiators seem disposed to grant some wage increase and some form of earlier retirement. But they draw a firm line against the U.A.W.'s proposed changes in working conditions, particularly those extra minutes of what they call "time-paid-not-worked" that would add millions of dollars to labor costs. In the last negotiations three years ago, both sides reached agreement on economic issues (the U.A.W. got a package amounting to 17¢ an hour), but disputes over working conditions provoked strikes by maverick locals that paralyzed both Ford and G.M. for about two weeks. "The chances of trouble this year are greater than they have been at any time since 1946," says one top negotiator. "Somebody's got to come down off the mountain."
The U.A.W. may well concentrate its attack on General Motors and its tenacious negotiator Louis Seaton, because G.M. has the highest profit margin. Both sides will huff and puff down to the end, orating for their grandstands at the start, then making a hurry-up effort to talk to each other. One auto company vice president observes that "it always comes down to the last week, when G.M. makes another, more liberal offer." There could very well be a strike of sorts in September, but it would probably be settled quickly. Reason: 1964 is an election year, the first one since 1948 to run concurrent with auto labor talks. Walter Reuther does not want to embarrass Lyndon Johnson in the heat of his own battle, and neither side relishes the prospect of federal intervention at the bargaining table.