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In any event, there is little choice. In the drive to rebuild U.S. prestige and influence after Cuba, an obvious place to start is Brazil, which most experts regard as the key nation in Latin America. A strong, healthy Brazil does not guarantee democracy in Latin America, but it is certain that if Brazil does not make it, few other nations will. Says Hernane Tavares de Sá, ex-editor of Brazil's leading news magazine, who now serves as U.N. Public Information chief: "If the U.S. loses Guatemala, Costa Rica and the island of Cuba, nothing very much happens. But if you lose Brazil, you lose the balance of power in Latin America.''
Jânio Quadros understands this well. "Unless we make revolutionary reforms,'' he warned his Cabinet ministers, ''some day—in some unknown serra—some unknown Fidel Castro will rise up in Brazil." The fires already burn in the drought-blasted northeastern states where the Peasant Leagues of Castro Disciple Francisco Julião attack plantations and riot in the cities. Whether the leagues spread or die out depends on whether Quadros can use Brazil's fantastic natural resources (see box) to end the misery that afflicts its exploding population. Half of Brazil's 67 million people (to be 200 million by the year 2000) still suffer from chronic malnutrition; half are barefoot; more than half are illiterate. Only one out of three children goes to school at all; one out of six gets to high school. Lack of iodine in diet causes goiter in every sixth Brazilian; one out of three hosts intestinal hookworms. In some backland areas, every other baby dies before it is one year old. Brazil's average life span: 46, v. 69.4 in the U.S.
The hope for a better life lies in the successful strides that Brazil has already made toward development. In the past decade, Brazil's industrial growth has been staggering. Five years ago, Brazil had no auto industry; now it produces 180,000 vehicles a year—plus 110,000 washing machines, 150,000 television sets, 500,000 radios, 350,000 sewing machines, 300,000 refrigerators, 120,000 air conditioners. Much credit belongs to ex-President Kubitschek, who at the cost of raging inflation turned Brazilian eyes inland by building the new capital 600 miles from the coast. But the heart of Brazil beats fastest in São Paulo, where U.S. investment alone tops $1 billion. And São Paulo made Jânio Quadros.