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One Small Incident. Riad assured Scott that in spite of Sadat's fiery statements, Egypt is not intent on war. He said, "When you hear from us that there will be no more discussion at the United Nations and that we refuse Resolution 242 [calling on Israel to withdraw from occupied territories in exchange for secure and agreed borders]. then you can say that Egypt is ready to fight."
The trouble is, however, that warlike words ring louder than peaceful protestations. Sadat, by having repeatedly proclaimed 1971 as Egypt's "year of decision" against Israel, and now by telling the army that the time to fight has come, is painting himself into a corner. Using another image, an old U.N. hand last week put it thus: "Sadat, like Nasser before him, has developed a habit of hanging himself on a hook and then pleading with the major powers to get him off."
Before they do, though, one small incident could occur that might get out of hand. Significantly, Israel has already dropped warning hints that if Egypt attempts to resume even limited warfare in the Suez Canal Zone, its troops will retaliate in full force. There will not be another war of attrition, the Israelis insist, but an all-out conflict. And then problem No. 5 would again become everybody's crisis No. 1.
*Egypt has an estimated 70,000 men stationed along the canal, in addition to 10,000 commandos training for hit-and-run raids. It also has an estimated 1,000 pieces of artillery in the area, including 203-mm. cannon with a 30-mile range, as well as nearly 1,000 tanks and an undetermined number of Frog ground-to-ground missiles. Israel's opposing force is smaller but well equipped, better trained and is dug in along the formidable, 100-mile Bar-Lev Line. Moreover, it is supported by a superior air force.