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Obviously, the U.N. vote does not overwhelm Taiwan, but it does cast doubts over the island's future. Can Taiwan maintain its prosperity if international business loses confidence in it, or if the Chinese Communists really apply pressure? Last week the Taiwan government announced three new multimillion-dollar investments from abroad —an American fiber plant, an Austrian steel mill and a Hong Kong housing project—but overall foreign investments have already dropped from a record $139 million last year to an estimated $100 million for this year.
Politically, as the balance of world recognition continues shifting from Chiang to Mao, it becomes doubtful that 2,000,000 mainland refugees can continue indefinitely their authoritarian rule over 12 million Taiwanese. Many Taiwanese, descendants of early settlers from Kwangtung and Fukien provinces, want self-government, but when they rebelled in 1947, Chiang's troops massacred about 10,000 of them.
The alternative, which some experts predict will happen in as few as five years, is reunification—a euphemism for Peking's takeover. Last week, not for the first time, there were widespread rumors that Chiang Ching-kuo actually visited the mainland recently for secret talks with the Communists. Officials in Taipei once again denied any possibility of a deal with the mainland, but when the elder Chiang departs, even reunification is not inconceivable.