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IS JAPAN A KEY TO AGREEMENT?
Japan's plight was well understood by the Europeans, who realized that Japan has been hit hard by U.S. trade and monetary action. The visitors stressed that in its race to become a preeminent industrial power, Japan has strained its social and economic framework, leaving itself peculiarly vulnerable to a slowdown in world trade.
"We should not be totally mesmerized by the Japanese," said Sir Reay Geddes. "They are not gods and they have their weaknesses. If their industries lose sales beyond a certain point, they could very quickly disclose severe weaknesses." Furthermore, said Sir Reay, a turndown in economic growth could create grave social and political unrest in Japan.
Looking at its vulnerability, the Europeans seemed confident that Japan would make trade and monetary concessions. Said Frederik J. Philips, of The Netherlands' Philips company, Europe's largest electronics concern: "The Japanese do not like to make enemies. They come to terms when they feel it is absolutely essential. Until then, they postpone decisions."
The Netherlands' Gerrit Wagner reminded the discussion group: "In terms of income per capita, Japan is No. 20 on the world list." He added: "In the trade field, there could be one American solution in Europe and quite another in Japan."
IS THE U.S. BECOMING PROTECTIONIST?
Sir Arthur Norman, chairman of the De La Rue Co. of London, commented somberly: "Over the past few years, the U.S. free-trade lobby has been very successful, generally speaking, in holding back the protectionist tide. That tide has now overtaken us temporarily—and we have to ask how long 'temporarily' will be." Belgium's Count Boël suggested: "I think the U.S. will remain faithful to a doctrine not of free trade, but of fair trade, to gain equality. We and the Americans recognize that the world has changed, that a new approach has to be made."
Pierre Waltz of Switzerland's Société Suisse pour I'Industrie Horlogère, a holding company of watch manufacturers, warned: "We have to assume President Nixon's good faith internationally. But we have also to add that if he does not succeed, this country will almost certainly go protectionist." Gerrit Wagner agreed: "We should take back to Europe a message that though the situation is serious, the U.S. has the best intentions. However, if it is confronted with a choice between a national and an international solution, it will opt for the national one."
IS THE U.S. BECOMING ISOLATIONIST?
The prospect of an isolationist America perturbed the Europeans. Giuseppe Bertola, of Switzerland's Brown Boveri, said: "I have always found in America a certain missionary zeal. The First World War made the world safe for democracy and revived in Europe the truth about the American dream, the American way of life, and so on. Now it seems that this missionary zeal has been lost in the big changes through which we are passing. America speaks no more of leadership, but of partnership. Everybody is confused by what is intended, because just at a moment when it is necessary, you are giving up your missionary work."