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The biggest uncertainty of all for the industry is what will happen to it after the Viet Nam War ends. Actually, the leaders of companies that have a large stake in commercial planebuilding believe that peace will be a boon to them. They point out that the war has distorted the economy and brought about the need for deflationary policies in 1969 and 1970. This, in turn, led to business sluggishness, which crimped air travel and the sales of commercial planes. There is a widespread feeling in the industry that, until the war is over, the economy is going to remain in a state of suspension. One of the benefits of a return to peace will be that people will increase their air travel.
The peacetime prospects of military contractors are not entirely bleak. Defense Secretary Melvin Laird recently said that the Pentagon will begin to place greater emphasis on modernizing weapons than on maintaining high manpower levels. Leaders of the Armed Forces are readying new orders for several long-deferred weapons systems, including the B-l strategic bomber and the airborne warning and control system (AWACS). The awards will begin in mid-1971. At about the same time, NASA expects to begin awarding its next big space contracts for a project that had been deferred partly by the high costs of the war. The new contracts will be for a reusable shuttle vehicle and a permanent space station. Together, they will enable astronauts to rocket out to an elaborately equipped space home and return on the same vehicle. Almost every major aerospace company has started bidding for parts of this project.
Plotting A New Course
These orders, in addition to ongoing projects like the ABM Safeguard missile (now budgeted at $1.3 billion) will pump some fresh funds into the post-Viet Nam aerospace industry. They are far from sufficient, however, to spin it back to the rich-living days of the 1960s, when newspapers regularly carried whole sections of aerospace help-wanted ads. Moreover, unless the Soviets score a major technological breakthrough similar to Sputnik, there is little chance that the U.S. will decide to undertake another moon-sized aerospace project in the near future. Given the widespread antiwar sentiment in the U.S., the chances of becoming involved in a new war are even slimmer. Thus, the aerospace industry stands to collect a smaller share of the rising gross national product in the years ahead.
One of the most important legacies of aerospace's golden age in the '60s was the creation of an extraordinary pool of manpower. As Boeing Vice President Oliver C. Boileau points out: "Our industry is unique for its technology and for its program planning process —systems management." The sharply trained, highly motivated aerospace teams are a national asset that should not be allowed to dissolve and drift apart. For that reason, and because the
U.S. needs a vibrant aerospace industry for obvious defense and research purposes, it is important to ask: What should the nation do about its aerospace industry?