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Last week the Governor also sent to the legislature an emergency bill to repeal the compulsory-renewal provision. If it passes and insurers can overturn the 15% across-the-board rate cut in the courts, the no-fault plan has a chance to work. The legislature's insurance committee did agree last week to let insurers refuse to renew policies for some bad drivers, but insurers regard the change as inadequate. If the deadlock persists, Armstrong fears, there will be "a domino effect." Some auto insurers will pull out of the state; other companies, unhappy at the prospect of taking on money-losing business, will either resist writing new policies on unwanted high-risk cases—or else quit the state. Eventually, many drivers with less-than-perfect records will be unable to purchase insurance from anyone.
Even that debacle would not necessarily stop the spread of the no-fault idea, which is the most promising plan around for the overdue reform of the auto-insurance system. The Manhattan-based American Insurance Association expects bills embodying the no-fault principle to be introduced in 16 state legislatures next year. Michigan Senator Philip Hart, a champion of nationwide no-fault insurance, is preparing a package of bills for auto-insurance reform. However, the experience of Massachusetts as the first state to enact a no-fault plan will figure heavily in debates on the idea elsewhere. Auto drivers throughout the U.S. may be the losers if lawyers' self-interest and the desire of legislators to play political games prevent the first test from being a fair one.