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No one is certain what the aerospace-men will bring back from the moon and the planets. Perhaps only rocks, perhaps exotic new minerals. But history's lesson is that explorers seldom find the expected. An eloquent case for aerospace is made by top Avco Corp. Researcher Dr. Arthur Kantrowitz: "To characterize aerospace as a growth industry is to take a narrow view. It is more like the discovery of America—a new opportunity for mankind. I keep telling my children that I wouldn't be surprised if their children lived in some brave new world in space, just as we came to America from the old countries. It might be another opportunity to start all over. You've got to do that periodically if you want to make great advances."
The Coming Shake-Out. "Mr. Khrushchev has hitherto made the market for the aerospace business," says Martin Co.'s Chairman George Bunker, "but now it is here to stay." Even if the cold war were to end next week, the U.S. would almost surely find itself committed to expanding its exploration of space.
The aerospace industry is destined to grow, and is bound to change. It will attract steadily more investment, perhaps as much as $18 billion yearly by 1966. It will need more people—fewer unskilled workers, more scientists and technicians. The rapid forward tumble of progress will make for quicker obsolescence, shorter production runs. Today's wide variety of experimental space vehicles will shake down to a few reliable systems. And there will be more incestuous relations among the aerospace suppliers—being top contractors on one project, subcontractors on another.
"The future evolution of the industry," says nimbus-maned Lee Atwood, president of North American Aviation, "will separate the lucky from the unlucky, the thoughtful from the compulsive—the men, as it were, from the boys." A shakeout of companies is inevitable, as it has been in the maturing stages of every major U.S. industry, from autos to appliances. But for the lean and the resourceful, the sky is no limit. Says Tom Jones: "Space vehicles can and must be built, operated and maintained at a minimum cost without sacrificing performance or reliability. The race will be won by those companies that learn to use the new technology to provide solutions at a cost that the nation can afford." And he adds, with a gleam in his eye: "We are going to have a Henry Ford in space—I'm sure of it."