With the presidential election still more than a year away, this is the Hot-Stove League season in national politics. It is the time when small trades are talked about, small promises made, small wagers placed on the prospects.
But all those small things can add up to a lot. In Autumn 1963, there is no doubt about who next summer's Democratic presidential nominee will be. And so the Hot-Stove League talk centers around the G.O.P. situation. Arizona's Senator Barry Goldwater has a huge lead for the nomination; there is strong evidence that he might give Incumbent Democrat Kennedy a real run in the November election (TIME, Oct. 4).
For nearly three weeks, TIME'S Chicago Bureau Chief Murray Gart has been touring the U.S. talking to Republicans in all sections. His camp-by-camp report of their activities:
GOLDWATER: The Bandwagon The Senator insists that he is still "just pooping around the country" raising funds for the party. But "Draft Goldwater" committees are sprouting like winter wheat, should be established in every state by mid-October. Some states already have Goldwater groups clear down to the precinct level, waiting only until Barry formally announces his candidacy—probably in January—to move into high gear.
Of the U.S.'s 16 Republican Governors, four already are avowed Goldwater men. They are Arizona's Paul Fannin, Oklahoma's Henry Bellmon, Montana's Tim Babcock and Wyoming's Cliff Hansen. Leaning strongly to Goldwater are four more: Colora do's John Love, Kansas' John Anderson, Utah's George Clyde and South Dakota's Archie Gubbrud. Maine's John Reed is still stringing along with Rocky. Idaho's Robert Smylie, Rhode Island's John Chafee and Oregon's Mark Hatfield have leaned to Rocky, now believe his prospects are dead, and apparently are casting around for another candidate. That leaves only Favorite Sons Rockefeller, Romney, Scranton, and Ohio's James Rhodes.
So strong is the Goldwater swell that many leaders are finding it dangerous to oppose him. Indiana's State Chairman H. Dale Brown, a Rockefeller admirer, resigned recently because so many party officials were working openly for Goldwater. Ohio's Rhodes is leery of Goldwater, fears Barry would totally lose the state's Negro vote and might revive the explosive right-to-work issue. But Ohio observers agree that the party's rank and file is strongly for Goldwater and Rhodes may have trouble holding the delegation in line. Similarly, Michigan Republicans are getting restive about Romney's prospects, would jump to Goldwater in an instant if Romney were to release them.
Though Texas Senator John Tower has been his front man, in recent weeks Senator Norris Cotton of New Hampshire and ex-California Senator William Knowland have boarded his bandwagon. In Ohio, Industrialist George Humphrey, Ike's Treasury Secretary, is drumming up business support. Canny Lawyer Herbert Brownell, Ike's Attorney General, has been turning up lately at Goldwater rallies. And enough money is rolling into Goldwater coffers to impress even a Rockefeller. "Hell," said a Chicago Republican after a draft-Goldwater meeting, "someone said something about money, and within ten minutes we had $375,000 pledged."