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¶While refugee routes to the West remain even partially open, discontented East Germans will prefer to flee to safety rather than resort to the more dangerous open struggle.
¶West German officials have consistently cautioned East Germans via the radio and the press against a "suicidal" uprising, a clear warning that they should not count on help.
But, taking no chances on a revolt, Communist Boss Walter Ulbricht now has 30,000 highly trained riot police, more than 80,000 People's Police, and a People's Army of 110,000 equipped with tanks and artillery. Backing up these regulars are the 300,000 members of factory "fighting groups"—hard-core Communists equipped with infantry weapons and trained specifically to aid regular forces in case of an uprising. Should all these home-grown forces fail or defect, as was the case in Hungary, there remains the formidable Russian army in East Germany. 350,000 to 400,000 strong. Last week these forces got a new commander experienced in quelling popular uprisings: much-decorated Marshal Ivan S. Konev, who, as boss of all Warsaw Pact troops in 1956, had a hand in crushing the Hungarian freedom fighters.
In such circumstances. East Germans had the prudent alternatives of flight or putting up with it. The uncertain factor was whether, as the tension over Berlin increased, prudence would prevail.