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If the official tally bears out La Prensa's projection, with Haya ahead but with less than one-third of the vote, choice of the new President will be decided under the constitution by an absolute majority of the new Congress—whose makeup also remains in doubt. Over everything looms the shadow of Peru's army, bitterly anti-Haya since his revolutionary days in the 19305. By its own arithmetic last week, the army declared Fernando Belaunde the winner. If Haya should be the victor, but by a narrow majority, there are veiled indications that the army will prevent his installation.