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"We have to control certain liberties. Results, based on hard facts, prove we are on the right path." For example: "No newspaperman is told what to write, but he is forbidden to write anything that, in our opinion, may be bad for the morale or progress of the country. In a word, the press is censored. Very mildly indeed, but censored." In Pérez Jiménez' view, "there must be a leader who shows the way without being perturbed by the necessity of winning demagogic popularity." He makes it plain that for the present he has no intention of trying to become a popular politician, or of relaxing the severity of his regime.
As Venezuela goes into its fifth year under Pérez Jiménez, many of the other passengers on the oil-powered dreamboat profess to admire the skipper's hard-fisted style of command. "Don't rock the boat," say prosperous U.S. businessmen, happily noting the political quiet, record oil production, boom-time construction and the rising standard of living (70% up in the last decade). But the advice is given so often as to reflect at least a subconscious awareness that the boat may be somewhat unseaworthy. Sample weaknesses:
¶ Overdependence on oil. Petroleum forms 95% of Venezuela's exports. A bill perennially proposed by Pennsylvania's Congressman Richard Simpson to cut U.S. imports of foreign oil could cost Venezuela a shattering $340 million a year.
¶ Financial mismanagement in the government. Semi-independent government corporations, e.g., the Centro Bolivar, the Workers' Bank, are paying many debts in short-term government notes. The contractors and sellers who get the notes must give discounts up to 18% to convert them into cash, so they naturally fatten their prices to cover the expected sacrifice. The absurdity of such costly short-term debt financing (total: some $127 million) in rich, credit-worthy Venezuela seems explainable only in terms of the carefree feeling that "it's only money." Pérez Jiménez, not at all amused and more than a little embarrassed, reportedly plans a Cabinet shake-up soon to correct these practices.
¶ Graft. Many government purchasing agents expect from 15% to 25% of a deal as their cut.
¶ Backlands poverty. The oil wealth has yet to trickle down to many thousands of half-nomadic rural Venezuelans, who scratch subsistence diets out of jungle clearings.
¶ The uncertain future. A tire or tie-rod failure on a Mercedes-Benz, an army plot like the two Pérez Jiménez staged, or a simple slip-up by a guard or a food-taster might remove the strongman from the scene. Lacking democracy's orderly system for succession, Venezuela might suffer a turbulent struggle for power.
New Works, New Faces. All these weaknesses could make serious trouble.