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> March losses were heavier than those in February or January, but the total was "much lower" in April. Secretary Knox, announcing this fact, also said that convoy-escort vessels and aircraft had been added steadily to the anti-submarine forces of the Allies. Britain also is building escorts, recently put in service a new "frigate" class of U-boat hunters (see cut).
> Admiral Emory S. Land, chairman of the U.S. Maritime Commission, said that U.S. shipyards were turning out five ships a day, would furnish nearly 19,000,000 deadweight tons this year as against just over 8,000,000 deadweight tons in 1942.
Bombing for Time. As the convoy had beaten the U-boat in World War I, air power might yet defeat it in this war. Defense of German U-boat factories in the homeland was beyond Admiral Doenitz' power. He had dispersed the factories well, from the seaports to innermost Germany and the eastern occupied countries. But in three years and a half Allied Intelligence had ferreted out most of them. Bombing them and the assembly yards was a slow process, but it was beginning to tell.
Among the bombers' most vulnerable and fruitful targets were the bases where Doenitz' raiders had to hole up for repairs and refitting. Submarines returning to base need about two weeks for overhaul and restocking before going back to sea. If the U-boat has been depth-charged, the repairs may involve weeks. Normal repairs were undoubtedly taken into account by Grand Admiral Doenitz in planning his spring campaign. What counted was unforeseen delay and repeated air attacks on St. Nazaire, Lorient, other bases had undoubtedly multiplied the delay.
Time and the Enemy. If Grand Admiral Doenitz were asked to name his greatest foe in the spring U-boat war, he might well answer: "Time." Time could give the Allies more ships, time could wear his weapon down. If he could not win now, the dockyard could defeat the submarine as surely as the Allies' growing air power could cut down its production at home.
But time was a neutral, and in the race between U-boats and an Allied second front it was also a crucial factor for the Allies. Last week Admiral Ernest J. King, always a pessimist on U-boat warfare, said: "The submarine menace ... is being dealt with. . . . We expect to bring it under control now in four to six months' time."
This was the most optimistic prediction yet made by the U.S. COMINCH, but it also showed how serious a problem the U-boats still presented to the Allies. Four to six months meant next August or October. If by that time the supplies for a second front had not been shipped across the Atlantic, it might well be too late for this year. In that case, Grand Admiral Doenitz could consider that he had won the battle of 1943.