General José Fidel Davila, Defense Minister in the new Rightist Cabinet (see p. 17), ended a fortnight of cautious inaction on the Teruel front, launched an offensive 25 miles north of Teruel which this week swept forward at least 18 miles. In the ominous calm which preceded this fresh blast in Spain's storm, Britain's lanky No. 1 commentator on military affairs, famed Captain Basil Henry Liddell Hart, leaned back in a London armchair last week, pondered, then wrote his professional opinion—thoughtful if iffy—on the next six months of Spain's civil war:
"On the main front it is clear that Franco has a large superiority in aircraft and a considerable superiority in artillery. On the other hand the fighting spirit seems to be stronger on the Barcelona Government side as a whole, except for certain sections of Franco's troops, such as the Navarrese and what remains of the Foreign Legion. The Government also seems to have the superiority in motor transport, and this is very important militarily. Any greater result than an initial success in a surprised offensive depends on the rapidity with which attacker and defender can rush up reserves, to deepen or close the breach respectively. . . .
"Military balance might thus be regarded as inclining toward the Government. But that prospect is complicated by other factors, of which the most important are first, the food shortage from which the areas in Government possession are suffering, secondly, the wearying and exhausting effect of constant air raids on the civil population where there is a deficiency of means to check them.
"If Franco should win now it will in all probability be due to these factors. But if the food situation can be improved and the civil population can hold out under the strain, Franco's prospects may have definitely faded by the summer. Even so, the disappearance of Franco's hopes of victory would not necessarily mean the restoration of the Government's supremacy throughout Spain. Thus, if the Government can maintain its own food supplies, the most probable outcome would seem to be that the war may peter out with Spain divided into two parts more or less along the present battle line. If peace is thus restored, conflict might be expected to break out inside those parts, especially on Franco's side."
The new Army of Leftist Spain, thus shaded for the victory by Captain Hart, is as brilliantly unorthodox as some of the captain's own theories (he thinks the War's greatest general was T. E. Lawrence). Its history is the most exciting record of men at arms since the Russian Revolution. The outgrowth of one regiment, it owes its present effectiveness to the stress of one battle, the ability of one politician and a handful of generals, three of them Spanish.