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Nixon based his revisions on studies by Assistant Transportation Secretary Paul Cherington, a onetime Harvard professor, showing that CAB transpacific traffic forecasts had run from 21% to 33% too high. A surfeit of U.S. airline traffic, goes the Administration's rationale, would only prompt reprisals from countries anxious to protect their own airlines. Were Japan Air Lines to suffer from increased U.S. competition, for example, Tokyo could well dun Washington for more flights to the U.S.