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¶ ISRAEL, by contrast, depends for its very survival on military supremacy over its Arab neighbors, probably intends to go nuclear as soon as possible. France provided Israel with a modified EL3 reactor, supplies uranium—probably without controls—under a secret agreement reached in 1957. The Israelis are getting enough plutonium to enable them to produce a modest bomb a year within five years at their Dimona plant, near Beersheba on the road to Sodom, and are apparently working at top speed to develop independent supplies of reactor fuel and plutonium.
¶ SWEDEN, which has no overriding moral or political compunctions about nuclear weapons, is advancing swiftly toward the bomb-making stage. Like India, it is producing its own reactor fuels and could soon have a separation plant to supply weapons-grade plutonium. Neutrality has been Sweden's way of life for 150 years, and it is interested in atomic bombs solely for tactical use in the event of invasion. Its political parties are hotly divided on whether to go ahead.
¶ WEST GERMANY has the potential to build nuclear weapons in from two to three years and craves the security they could give. But Bonn is bound by treaty not to build bombs on German soil (though it is under no legal constraint not to buy or build them elsewhere), and because of its vulnerable position has no urgent desire for its own atomic armory. The risks are too great: the U.S. might withdraw its umbrella of protection; the Soviets might launch an attack. Nor could it build weapons secretly, for the country is overrun with foreign troops and officials, and its industrial capacity is under constant surveillance by the Western European Union. Washington's efforts to build a multi-lateral force (MLF)—an internationally manned, missile-firing surface fleet under NATO command—are aimed primarily at meeting Germany's demands for a greater share in nuclear decisionmaking; despite heavy fire from Russia and France, the MLF proposal is still afloat.
A Question of Stamina
On the basis of technical ability, Italy could join the nuclear club in from two to three years; Switzerland, Belgium and The Netherlands in five. Egypt and Pakistan often are mentioned as potential nuclear powers, but Western officials say that neither is capable of producing a bomb within the foreseeable future—though the governments of both countries would be under powerful pressure to get started if Israel and India developed atomic weapons. Despite President Sukarno's boasts that Indonesia will be the fourth nuclear power in Asia, atomic experts point out that his small, 250-kilowatt research reactor yields barely enough plutonium to build a bomb in 100 years—assuming that Sukarno could ever muster the facilities. The only other nations now thought capable of joining the club are Spain, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.