THE Palestinian guerrillas who are sworn to destroy Israel seem to stand a far better chance of destroying some of the Arab countries that serve as their springboards of operation. Lebanon and Jordan, in particular, know that raids mounted from within their borders will bring harsh Israeli retaliation, but have proved too weak to crack down on their often uninvited guests. Last week an attempt by Lebanon's army to curb the fedayeen ("men of sacrifice") brought the country face-to-face with the specter of civil war. The fighting reportedly left 40 guerrillas and 25 soldiers dead, spurred violence in several major cities, prompted Syria to mobilize troops along the border and sent shock waves through the Middle East—and beyond. In the U.S., the State Department warned that a "major tragedy" could be in the making.
The crisis is rooted in Lebanon's volatile ethnic makeup. Roughly half of its 2,700,000 citizens are Christian, half Moslem. The Lebanese, jealous of their position as the eastern Mediterranean's pacemakers in commerce and communications, have kept the ethnic conglomerate intact for 26 years by means of a scrupulously observed gentleman's agreement. It provides that the President of the republic—currently Charles Helou—should always be a Maronite Catholic, the Premier a Sunnite Moslem, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Moslem. Parliament is apportioned on a 6-to-5 ratio favoring Christians, as are the army and the civil service. From time to time, the system has come close to collapse. Until last week, its severest test occurred in 1958, when strife between the sects led President Eisenhower to dispatch the U.S. Sixth Fleet and 14,500 Marines to prevent an Arab takeover.
Crack Down. Whether the Lebanese or the Al-Fatah guerrillas provoked the fighting is unclear. Certainly, the army has long been edgy. Last December, in retaliation for guerrilla actions elsewhere, Israeli commandos carried out a raid on Beirut airport. Lebanon's generals, humiliated that the nation lost 13 commercial airplanes without being able to strike back, were chafing to crack down on the guerrillas, who were moving across the countryside pretty much at will.
Al-Fatah has also been spoiling for a fight for months. Last spring, army attempts to control the commandos led to street demonstrations in which 17 died. The riots caused the downfall of the government of Rashid Karami, who resigned to avoid a confrontation that would hurt Lebanon, but stayed on as caretaker Premier. After the riots, the guerrillas tacitly agreed to operate only along Lebanon's border with Israel and to keep away from civilian settlements against which the Israelis could retaliate. Despite the agreement, they have tripled their forces to about 5,400 men and set up new camps deeper inside Lebanese territory. Two weeks ago. apparently without bothering to check with Helou or Karami, the army moved. Arguing that the fedayeen were endangering civilian communities, troops encircled two score guerrillas in the village of Majdel Silm in southern Lebanon. Before the guerrillas could retreat into neighboring Syria, 14 were slain.