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Little Coalition
Seldom has such a momentous political change been caused by such a small shift in the vote. As the first returns trickled in, computers forecast that the Christian Democrats would make a strong showing. The outcome seemed so certain that in the early evening President Nixon sent a congratulatory message via the Washington-Bonn "hotline" teletype to Chancellor Kurt Kiesinger.
Later, as the trend changed by mere fractions of points, the C.D.U.'s lead dwindled until it was left with 242 seats, seven short of a majority in the 496-seat Bundestag. Together, the Socialists with 224 seats and the Free Democrats with 30 held a margin of twelve seats over the C.D.U. Earlier, Brandt had declared that he would need a majority of 13 to 30 seats to put together a coalition with the Free Democrats. The moment he caught a whiff of power, however, he lowered his sights. Surrounded by a dozen close colleagues in Bonn's drab Socialist headquarters, which are aptly called "the Barracks," Brandt announced just before midnight: "I'll do it, even if we have only a majority of two." With that, he telephoned the Free Democrats' Walter Scheel to ask if he were interested in trying to form a coalition.
Brandt offered Scheel the foreign ministry, plus two middle-level posts (interior and agriculture) in the 15-member Cabinet. Belatedly, the C.D.U. weighed in with an even more generous offer, including both the foreign and finance ministries. Said one Free Democrat: "The C.D.U. is willing to give us everything but the chancellorship." Too late. In a party caucus, the Socialists unanimously voted for the "Little Coalition" with the Free Democrats. With three members abstaining, the Free Democrats also endorsed the union. According to the present schedule, President Heinemann will nominate Brandt as Chancellor on Oct. 19, the Bundestag will vote on the proposal two days later, and if he wins the election, Brandt will be formally installed the same day.
Manfully, the Christian Democrats insisted that it might not be so bad, after all, to play the role of the opposition against a shaky coalition. As the largest party, the Christian Democrats will have a tight grip on the many key committees; they also will be able to delay and block legislation in the Bundesrat (upper house), where they still command a 21-to-20 majority.
Worth the Risk
After an initial period of indecision, Kiesinger decided that he would direct the opposition in the Bundestag himself. But the C.D.U. leaders were also confronted with some fundamental decisions about the party's direction. There will be a chorus of voices, probably led by Bavarian Party Chief Franz-Josef Strauss, favoring a move toward the right to attract those who may desert the defeated National Democrats. There are certain to be strong tugs in the other direction as well to keep the party in the middle of Germany's political spectrum. The Christian Democrats will not only have to resolve those conflicting pressures but also to produce new faces and more attractive ideas. A promise to preserve the status quo is no longer an appealing platform.
For Brandt, the swift move to snatch the chancellorship from the C.D.U. is obviously the gamble of his career. In the unlikely event that the Free Democrats do not hold to their bargain,