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Strangulation. Zambia's future would look rosy indeed were it not for one overriding problem: its dependence on the white-ruled nations to the south.
Zambia imports more than 60% of its consumer goods from Rhodesia and South Africa, could not run its copper smelters without Rhodesian coal and can ship its vital copper exports to the sea only via a Rhodesian-operated railroad to ports in South Africa and Portuguese Mozambique.
It is an embarrassing situation for Kaunda, who must swallow enough of his African nationalist pride to stay on speaking terms with white-supremacist regimes that most other black Africans have boycotted. Kaunda's enforced moderation has fallen on deaf ears in Rhodesia, whose racist Premier Ian Smith seems bent on severing all ties with Zambia—including the rail line. "There's going to be a hell of a trouble unless the people down there can see sense quickly," says Zambian Vice President Reuben Kamanga.
The threat of economic strangulation has forced Kaunda to seek another outlet for his copper. Last month he met with Tanzania's President Julius Nyerere to talk over long-simmering plans for a 1,000-mile rail line eastward to Dar es Salaam. The railway would cost a staggering $200 million or so, but Nyerere seems as interested in pushing it through as is Kaunda. It would turn Dar es Salaam into East Africa's busiest port, open up a massive, uninhabited southern region that is known to contain valuable coal deposits. Besides, Nyerere would like to break his own dependence on the East African Common Market, now dominated by Kenya and Uganda. "We want to build this railway line," said Kaunda. "We do not only want to build it, we have decided to build it."
The question is how to pay for it. Britain has offered to underwrite at least half the cost of a $225,000 preliminary survey of the route, and Red China, not to be outdone, has already sent its own team of experts to survey the Tanzania end (Kaunda will not permit them to enter Zambia). As for the actual cost of construction, Kaunda hopes that will be taken care of by an international consortium of British, French, Canadian, American and Japanese entrepreneurs.