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What Motive? Truman's decision was the best-kept Washington political secret in years. Its origins went back to April 12, 1950, the anniversary of Franklin Roosevelt's death, when Truman sat alone at his White House desk and wrote out a private memorandum. The gist of it was that he would not run for the presidency again. He first planned to announce his decision on April 12 of this year, then advanced the date to the Jefferson-Jackson dinner. A few hours before the banquet, he told Mrs. Truman, called Margaret in Portland, Ore. and told her, and he told Democratic National Chairman Frank McKinney at a reception just before going in to dinner. Of the 6,000, not more than ten knew what was coming.
Why did he decide not to run? Truman's friends say that the simplest answer is the true one: he and his wife want to spend the rest of their lives in more peace and quiet than the White House can offer. This answer is certainly no pretense—but it may not be the whole truth.
Truman could have announced his decision months ago. He went to great pains to keep his choice open. What was he waiting for? One possibility was some relaxation of international tension. But less than a fortnight before, he had heatedly denied McKinney's report that his decision depended on war or peace in Korea. Another possibility is that he was awaiting the emergence of a successor on whom his party can agree. Though none has clearly emerged, Truman apparently felt that the hopefuls now in the field augur well for the party.
A Long Way. There have been two recent developments—one Democratic, one Republican—that may have influenced his timing and perhaps even his decision rot to run. In the Democratic camp, the strong Southern support behind Georgia's Senator Richard Russell brought home the threat of a defection in the South, whose leaders are bitterly hostile to Truman; another Truman candidacy might have split the party that Truman loves. Meanwhile, his defeat by Kefauver in the New Hampshire preference primary emphasized that he was not the unanimous choice of Northern Democrats.
The Republican development is the recent rise of General Eisenhower's chance to get the nomination. Truman might have made a lot of personal sacrifices if he thought them necessary to keep Senator Taft from the presidency. He has reasons for not wanting to run against Ike: 1) he likes Ike personally; 2) it may be that not even Truman's superb confidence is equal to the belief that he can beat Eisenhower. Why should he risk splitting his party in a losing fight?
So he bowed out, smiling. Six years, eleven months and 17 days before his announcement, Truman, overwhelmed by humility, had acceded to the presidency. Of that moment, he said: "Did you ever have a bull or a load of hay fall on you? If you have, you know how I felt last night."
The loads of hay had continued to fall. The Communization of Western Europe had been narrowly averted. The Middle East had drifted into confusion and enmity toward the West. China had gone Communist and the Korean war had followed. Congress set itself against Truman. Inflation pressed on. Taxes rose and deficits returned. Scandals beset the Administration of an honest man who was all too loyal to his political friends.