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Swamps & Pitfalls. Has Estes Kefauver really got a chance? The answer lies only at the end of a tortuous route, beset by every conceivable swamp, pitfall and booby trap known to politics. Kefauver's immediate strategy is to prove his popular strength. He will head, first, into the important primaries in Wisconsin and Nebraska, April 1. Wisconsin looks hopeful because the Truman forces are split there. Nebraska puts him squarely against Oklahoma's Senator Robert Kerr. as yet an untried, but supposedly potent, Midwest contender. If Kefauver vanquishes Kerr and picks up odds & ends of strength along the way, his next obstacle will be Georgia's Richard Russell (in the two Florida votes May 6 and May 27) and Illinois' Governor Adlai Stevenson (in Oregon May 16). Kefauver's prospects are (in this respect only) somewhat like that of a professional burglar: a good average isn't enough—he has to win every time.
The greatest unknown quantity is Harry Truman. If Truman runs, he will throw the whole weight of the Democratic machine against Kefauver, and can probably mangle him at the Chicago convention, regardless of primary showings. If Truman stays out and stays neutral, Estes has a chance at Chicago because he might be acceptable to the Solid South as well as to the North. TIME correspondents across the U.S. last week reported that Kefauver's New Hampshire victory had made a definite impression on Truman Democrats, who are afraid Harry is a bit of a liability. They will not desert Truman, but their sensitive ears caught Kefauver's post-New Hampshire overtures to Truman, and they liked what they heard.
There is a third possibility. Harry Truman's open opposition might prod Kefauver into a fight. Perhaps New Hampshire proves that Truman is already treed on Kefauver's television antenna. If the Chicago delegates have proof positive that the Legend is a better vote-getter than the Liability, they might—just possibly—rebel and nominate the man in the coonskin cap.
But this speculation hangs on Senator Legend. As yet, handshaking, mild, compromising Senator Kefauver hasn't caught up with him.
* Pronounced (in Tennessee, at least): Ess-tess Kee-fawver.