As the campaign drew to a close this week, political reporters and poll takers stepped to their adding machines and began to strike totals. They had used polls, "scientific" and otherwise, they had interviewed politicians, taxi drivers, barbers, farmers and one another.
When their findings were added up, most of the old familiar indicators pointed toward victory for Dwight Eisenhower. But one of the hardest political facts of all pointed steadily in the opposite direction. That fact: the U.S. voting record in the past four presidential elections. People tend to vote for the party they voted for last time. Based on that record, and on the fact that the analysts were almost unanimously wrong in 1948, almost every analysis was filled with caution. Cautions observed, a state-by-state study shows Ike ahead as of a week before election. It also provides a basis from which the election returns on election night can be studied for indications of a national trend either to Stevenson or Eisenhower.
The "Sure" States. The list of "sure" Democratic states is considerably below the traditional number. Eight states with 75 electoral votes, all traditionally Democratic, can be considered sure for Adlai Stevenson. The states (and their electoral votes):
Alabama 11
Arkansas 8
Georgia 12
West Virginia 8
North Carolina 14
Rhode Island 4
Mississippi 8
Kentucky 10
Even this list is challenged. The Associated Press poll of editors, released this week, says Rhode Island is a tossup. Seven states with 43 electoral votes can be listed as "sure" for Eisenhower. They are:
Maine 5
Vermont 3
New Hampshire 4
Kansas 8
Nebraska 6
South Dakota 4
Indiana 13
Inclined to Adlai. Ten states with 101 electoral votes can be listed as leaning to Stevenson. They are:
Arizona 4
Louisiana 10
Missouri 13
Oklahoma 8
Montana 4
Florida 10
Texas 24
Washington 9
South Carolina 8
Tennessee 11
Ike will get a great popular vote in Texas, Louisiana, Florida and South Carolina. But Democratic tradition still gives Stevenson an edge.
Inclined to Ike. Seventeen states with 169 electoral votes seem to be leaning to Ike. They are:
North Dakota 4
Ohio 25
Wisconsin 12
Oregon 6
Colorado 6
Iowa 10
Idaho 4
Nevada 3
Wyoming 3
New Jersey 16
Pennsylvania 32
Maryland 9
Delaware 3
Michigan 20
Connecticut 8
Utah 4
New Mexico 4
Pennsylvania and Michigan may be swayed Democratic on-the don't-let-them-take-it-away issue. Maryland, Delaware and Connecticut look close. In Utah, Ike had a lead but it is being cut.
The Balance. The list of states leaning to Eisenhower, plus his "sure" states, would give him 212 electoral votes. Stevenson's two groups would give him 176.
Necessary to elect: 266. The balance seems to lie with six states which have 143 electoral votes:
California 32
Illinois 27
Massachusetts 16
Minnesota 11
New York 45
Virginia 12