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From the standpoint of power politics the pact amounted to raising the ante in the hope of frightening the U. S. into dropping its hand so the Axis could rake in the pot. But if the Axis hoped to frighten the U. S. out of its everything-short-of-war policy of helping Great Britain, it had almost certainly failed. Since U. S. security in the Atlantic — hence liberty to maintain her Fleet in the Pacific—depends on the British Fleet, the U. S. could now do no less than help Britain more.
The Gamble. Ever since the war began Germany has tried to bring in Japan on her side. Lately U. S. aid to Great Britain has been an increasing menace to Germany. A month ago Germany began putting heavy pressure on Japan. One of Joachim von Ribbentrop's smart, tough young men, Heinrich von Stahmer, went to Moscow, told Joseph Stalin's man Molotov what was afoot, and continued on to Tokyo. There he was known as ''Germany's masked special envoy." Nearly every day he went to see Yosuke Matsuoka, Japan's ambitious, daring Foreign Minister who is the backbone of Premier Prince Fumimaro Konoye.
Germany needed Japan, not only to try to neutralize the U. S., but to threaten the Far Eastern part of the British Empire: Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand. Foreign Minister Matsuoka believed Japan could gamble on Germany's winning the war before the U. S. was ready, willing, or able to join up against the Axis in World War II. After two weeks of argument he won over Prince Konoye and the Emperor.
What Is East Asia? Japan's gains from the treaty were not so obvious as those of Germany and Italy. And Japan's risks were greater. But if the U. S. is kept from effective action in the Far East, Japan may eventually realize her East Asian dream. Last week no authoritative spokesman would define the term Greater East Asia, but the newspaper Nichi Nichi, which often speaks with authority, drew its boundaries in an article last month. Said Nichi Nichi:
"It is bound on the west by a continuous chain of mountains forming a Great Divide." Tracing this chain of mountains from the Bering Strait southwestward to the Arabian Sea, Nichi Nichi drew a line which almost coincides with the frontiers of Siberia, giving Japan's Greater East Asia all of China, French Indo-China, Siam, Burma and India. The coast line of East Asia, said Nichi Nichi, extends "from Northern Nippon southward to Indonesia, then westward to Ceylon. Asia's history shows how long there has been intercourse along this coast line. No matter how we look at this East Asia, it is a natural and inseparable unit."
Before embarking on a political course which may yet bring war with the U. S., Japan took one last look backward. Foreign Office spokesmen spoke regretfully of U. S. hostility to Japanese aims, of continued pressure culminating in last week's embargo of scrap iron. Japan is still not abandoning hope of improving relations with the U. S., said the Foreign Office's Spokesman No. 1, slightly cockeyed, definitely popeyed, swart, squat Ya-kichiro Suma.
In Moscow the text of the treaty was digested for 24 hours before its text was published. Not until three days after it was signed did Pravda offer the skimpy comment that Russia had known about it in advance.