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How Much? The U.S. now sends to Europe (mostly to Britain) 14 million tons of food a year. How much more would Europe need? In all, 50 million tons, or about half the present U.S. civilian supply, was the experts' staggering answer. But nobody took this figure seriously. Even if Washington politicos were brave enough to face such a cut, ships would not be available to carry so much.
More practical estimates called for 18 million tons, most of it in addition to the 14 million now moving. How much would actually be sent depended on the relative influence of three groups (TIME, March 26):
1) The Peacemakers (Secretary of State Stettinius, Harry Hopkins, the British) believed that civilians could and willingly would pull in their belts if they were convinced that the future of democracy in Western Europe depended on it. These officials had made up their minds, and the official U.S. policy was to send more food. But that could not be done unless the other groups consented or gave in to a direct Presidential order.
2) The Warmakers (Army, Navy, WPB) argued hotly that any constriction in military shipping or food supplies might delay victory. So far, they have balked all political decisions to send more food to Europe.
3) The Home-Fronters (War Food's Marvin Jones, Jimmy Byrnes, et al.) thought that any cut in soldier food or further heavy cuts in civilian supplies would be politically impossible and might hurt the war effort by cracking civilian morale.
Since distribution difficulties within Europe were a big factor, the U.S. might lessen the demand for food by shipping locomotives and trucks. A few ships carrying North African phosphates across the Mediterranean would produce food which otherwise would have to be sent across the Atlantic. Feed for European livestock would greatly help Europe to provision its own table. But even with perfect planning (plus good weather), the U.S. probably would have to eat less to win the peace.
* The U.S. soldier eats nearly 4,000 calories (double the 2,000 held necessary for health), including five times as much meat as the twelve ounces a week allowed British civilians. U.S. civilians, who before the war averaged a little over 3,100, now eat about 3,300 calories of the best-balanced diet in the world. Canadians are eating about 3,200 calories a day. French city-dwellers get about 1,300. The British are now up to about 2,900, but their diet is badly balanced and lacks variation. The Germans have had slightly less (but better balanced); the Russians, about 2,000.