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2½ to 1. Aside from his own self-confidence Chairman Farley found plenty to encourage him in the signs of the times last week. In Wall Street, where his candidate was unpopular, betting odds favored Roosevelt's election 2½-to-1. All except the most biased Republican newshawks touring the country reported evidences of a strong anti-Hoover tide still running. Even so ardent a claimer as Robert Lucas, ''brains" of the G. O. P. headquarters at Chicago, last week reported to President Hoover that only 270 electoral votes—a majority of four—were in sight for his reelection.
Polls & Partisans. Dry fodder to Republicans, but to Jim Farley and the Democratic donkey a feast, were the presidential straw votes conducted by The Literary Digest and the Hearst-papers. Every four years since 1920 the Digest's poll has successfully predicted the outcome with never more than a 5% error in the total vote. Each time the victorious G. O. P. accepted the poll at full value, hailed it as accurate, authoritative. This year the Digest's canvass of some 20 million citizens points strongly to a Democratic sweep. Last week the vote stood 1,095,274 for Hoover, 1,648,237 for Roosevelt who was carrying 41 States (see map p. 13). The Hearst poll, smaller but in the past even more accurate, confirmed this drift against President Hoover, gave him 181 electoral votes to 350 for his opponent. G. O. Partisans turned savagely on their erstwhile weathervane, insisted the Digest's returns were unreliable, meaningless. Their strongest claim was that the ballots had been cast before the Republican campaign really began, that since then a surge to Hoover unreflected in the totals was taking place. Chairman Sanders in his effort to belittle the Digest's forecast fell into factual error when he declared the magazine, polling the nation in 1916, had prophesied Hughes's election. William Seaver Woods, Digest editor, tartly pointed out that Mr. Sanders was "dreaming," that that year the magazine had polled only 30,000 persons in five States, accurately predicted the outcome in four, made no national forecast.
Clouds. In the shining sky at Demcratic headquarters in Manhattan's Biltmore Hotel, there were still a few dark clouds. Lowest and blackest was the money cloud. With a deficit hanging over, Democratic credit was none too good. Twenty-five-thousand-dollar contributions like Mr. Raskob's and Vincent Astor's were few & far between. The idea of small gifts from "forgotten men" had not proved a success. One week lately it was all headquarters could do to meet its $5,000 payroll. The campaign was largely being financed on more borrowed money and the hope of victory. Republican headquarters last week boasted that its campaign cash collections had reached the million-dollar mark.