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So Mussolini's most practical route into the Balkans lies across the Strait of Otranto, on one side of which he has a base at Brindisi and at the other the fortified island of Saseno. In April 1939 he took Albania, which gave him a jumping-off place on the far side. Thence an Italian Army, unless it meets opposition from the forces of some real power, could make its way through Greece, or via Monastir in Yugoslavia to Salonika. From that point it could either ascend the Vardar River Valley towards Nish, or if that route is blocked by Hitler, make its way into Bulgaria up the Struma and Maritsa Valleys, or along the coast toward the Dardanelles.
Such a drive would cut Italy in on the game that the dictators are playing in this area. More important it would keep the other dictators out of the Mediterranean which the Italians like possessively to call Mare Nostrum. If Mussolini took Bulgaria he would also have to have the port of Dedeagach on the Aegean Sea to give him access to his conquest without going into the Black Sea.
The chief unknown quantity in all these calculations is Turkey, which, holding the Dardanelles and the Bosporus, has the most strategic position of all. The Turk is a good soldier but the Turkish Army has outdated equipment. In Europe Turkey is only a second-rate adversary although if she were forced to retire to the mountains of Asia Minor she might become more difficult to deal with.
Early in World War II, to strengthen her position, Turkey made a passive alliance with Britain. What part she will henceforth play depends on who and how strong are her future partners.