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Ultimately, Agnew's chances for the nomination stand or fall with the approbation or opprobrium earned by Nixon's second term. Hubert Humphrey could explain to him better than any man alive that in the eyes of the voting public, a Vice President is lashed to his President's policies as securely as Ahab to his white whale. Also, Agnew has Nixon himself to contend with. The President felt he needed to retain Agnew as his running mate in 1972 to appease the party's right wing; that does not mean Nixon has to support him in 1976, or, for that matter, allow him a spotlight over the next four years. Says one veteran Nixon watcher: "The President will keep his knights divided and equal. Agnew won't be able to rise. Once any Nixon subaltern begins to rise too far above the pack, Nixon encourages the others to shoot at him. It will be this way with Agnew, and I wouldn't expect Nixon to tip his hand much if any before the 1976 convention."
In theory, at least, the 1976 G.O.P. Convention could be a donnybrook. The liberals will surely mount a strong attack on Agnew's qualifications to be President. They will push someone like Charles Percy, but that seems likely to succeed only in the event of a disastrous Nixon performance over the next four years. Percy, 53, has the youthful appearance and manner to attract a lot of voters. But his criticism of the White House on the Viet Nam War has put him in Nixon's doghouse, and the President would undoubtedly try to squelch his bid for the nomination Governors Nelson Rockefeller and Ronald Reagan will be too old for presidential aspirations. The strongest line-up of dark horses comes from Tennessee: Senators William Brock and Howard Baker and Governor Winfield Dunn, all more moderate than Agnew. In Ohio there is, of course, a Taft Senator Robert Jr., who carries a nice balance of his father's conservative reputation and his own liberal attitudes.
Although such men may politically grow and prosper during the interval, they still must be considered long shots for 1976. The odds now are with Agnew, if for no other reason than the fact that he is the favorite of the G.O.P.'s conservatives, who proved indubitably in Miami Beach in 1972 that they control the Republican Party. Indeed, in the only interesting confrontation of the entire starched-and-pressed convention, the right wing gerrymandered the delegate structure for the next convention to favor rural, conservative, and hence potentially Agnew-lining, states. Says Mississippi's Clarke Reed, a shrewd spokesman for the G.O.P.'s right-wing constituency: "We proved that this is a conservative party by a margin of about 2 to 1, and that's why conservatives are going to choose the nominee again in 1976."