
(2 of 2)
It is difficult to sustain fanaticism. Iran's religious zeal had faded by 1989, when its original revolutionary leader, Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini, died. The country was exhausted and decimated by a million casualties suffered in the war against Iraq. "There were two models that Khamenei considered when he came to power," says Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has done a close study of Khamenei's writings. "There was the Chinese model, which was favored by [then] President Hashemi Rafsanjani: build the economy, seek rapprochement with the West but retain complete political power." Khamenei was obsessed by a Russian example, though: Mikhail Gorbachev had just proved that if you compromise, you collapse. "Khamenei has never compromised. He has been unrelenting and unengageable."
Today the Chinese path is more compelling than ever--especially since the Revolutionary Guards control about 30% of the economy and are getting clobbered by the sanctions. But there is a new model to consider: Pakistan. "Some Revolutionary Guard leaders see that as soon as Pakistan gained nuclear capability, the world had to treat it with more respect," Sadjadpour says. But Iran's economy is likely to collapse before the Pakistani option is viable. And Obama shows no sign of making any concessions until Iran stops enriching uranium and opens its nuclear books.
Iran faces its greatest crisis since 1979. The Supreme Leader faces the defining choice of his career: compromise or collapse. One way or the other, his time is running out.
TO READ JOE'S BLOG POSTS, GO TO time.com/swampland