Why Harold Ford Has a Shot

The G.O.P.'s weakness creates a chance in the Tennessee senate race for a certain kind of Democrat

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Ford is hoping his record will make it more difficult for Republicans to, in the words of his campaign strategist Michael Powell, "culturally misalign" him--that is, cast him as more in line with Democrats nationally on social issues. But Ford has thrown some punches of his own, calling his G.O.P. rivals "the three stooges" and telling them to "grow up." As the Republicans were battling it out in what is thought to be the most expensive primary in Tennessee history, he got an early start sharpening his message for the general election. Last June, 16 months before voting day, he showed up in his first campaign ad, talking about the importance of supporting the troops in Iraq. Ford--who campaigns in a biodiesel-fueled Ford F-250 pickup--has run ads asking, "Fed up when you fill up?" He was one of the first candidates in the country to run TV spots criticizing the Bush Administration's approval of a deal--since dropped--to allow a Dubai company to run operations at some U.S. ports.

The race is about to take a new turn now that the Republicans have picked their candidate. Corker, 53, was probably the G.O.P.'s strongest choice to run against Ford. The contrast in their life stories is striking: before entering politics, Corker built a real estate and construction fortune from a company he started with the $8,000 he had saved working as a construction superintendent. But his record as Chattanooga mayor also creates some potential vulnerabilities for him.

The most moderate of the three contenders in the primary, Corker won in large part by raising $6.6 million and adding more than $2 million of his own money, which could be a sign of things to come. His opponents spent much of the race questioning his conservative credentials, pointing out, for instance, that his abortion-rights stance (he's now against) has shifted over the years.

Corker's more centrist image gives him a better shot at wooing conservative Democrats and independents away from Ford. But it also raises the question of whether the conservative base will be excited enough about Corker's candidacy to turn up at the polls in sufficient numbers come November. For all the money that was thrown into the primary, turnout was about average. Corker insists he is not worried about Republican enthusiasm, given his surprisingly large victory over two former House members, Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary. "This primary is the best thing that could have happened to the Republican Party," he told TIME. "That has been energizing, and that takes us into the general election with tremendous momentum."

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