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Nor does the recent history of stem-cell politics offer much encouragement to research advocates. The issue didn't help John Kerry much in 2004, though he gave Ron Reagan a prominent speaking spot at the Democratic Convention and appeared frequently in the final months of the campaign with actor-activist Christopher Reeve's widow Dana. A poll conducted by the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation shortly after the presidential election found that more than half of Bush's voters favored broadening the federal policy to include using embryos that would otherwise be discarded by fertility clinics--but voted for him anyway. That is probably because only 2% of voters identified stem-cell research as the most important factor in their decision, compared with 16% who cited terrorism and 13% who mentioned the Iraq war.
This year is not likely to be different. What is different is the climate in which the issue hits the electorate. "The Republican Party and the Congress have significant political problems looming," says Bauer. "But I would not put this as one of the things that have them in a hole." Then again, it won't dig them out of one either.