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The real threat to banks, say Wal-Mart supporters, is that the company might someday attack the financial industry's juicy fee structure. Even a critic like Jorde concedes that if Wal-Mart were to offer savings accounts and consumer loans at its usual rock-bottom prices, "the cost of banking services would decline, and consumers would say, 'This is great.'" Wal-Mart would also be in a good position to reach the 10 million households in the U.S. that don't use a bank account, says John Caskey, a professor of economics at Swarthmore and expert on the "unbanked." The company has already punctured the high cost of check cashing, which hits the unbanked hardest, by offering the service in its stores. Caskey says that with the right mix of low-cost services--bill payment, money orders, check cashing and basic savings accounts--Wal-Mart could serve an overlooked, overcharged population already in its stores.
The one thing a Wal-Mart Bank could probably never replace is the role of the small-town banker. With 8,000 charters, community banks have strong competition, and their deposits finance small businesses and home mortgages. Local bankers made a similar fuss, White says, when regulators allowed regional banks to expand, but most of the local banks found new ways to compete. Local bankers know better than most what happens to those who don't adapt to change. The closest Wal-Mart is 35 miles away, Coup says, but "I've seen the effects that it has on our local grocery store. It's now for sale."