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Ahmadinejad's confrontational approach is reportedly causing consternation within Iran's clerical establishment, especially at the Supreme National Security Council, in which ultimately the decisions on the nuclear issue are made. In a recent TIME interview in Tehran, Larijani extended an olive branch of sorts to the Bush Administration, saying Iran could agree to direct talks with Washington on nuclear and other issues. "You have differences of views with us. Having differences of view does not mean animosity," he said. "We have no problems negotiating ... provided that Mr. Bush does not harangue us." The U.S. has ruled out direct nuclear talks.
Despite such conciliatory rhetoric from some Iranian officials, it is likely that many of the mullahs still dream of a robust nuclear program--if Iran had the capacity to make a bomb, it would get the respect it deserves. That conforms with Iran's self-image as a nation whose glorious past and potential greatness are undermined by implacable enemies such as the U.S. According to experts inside and outside the country, the regime sees bargaining over its nuclear rights as a way to recast the strategic balance in the region in Iran's favor, to gain stature and recognition of the Islamic Republic as a powerful geopolitical player. A history of invasions has left Iran wary of its neighbors, especially now that it is encircled by countries that possess atom bombs--Russia, Pakistan and India as well as Israel. Now that U.S. troops occupy two next-door states, Iran's leaders see the nuclear card as a way to buy security guarantees for the country and survival for the regime. It wants Washington to stop pushing "regime change" and accept the existence of an Iranian Islamic Republic. But even as Iranian officials deny that they plan to build a bomb, they point out that once North Korea tested a nuclear device, Western threats against Pyongyang ceased.
One reason Iran is acting up may be that its leaders see this as a moment when the game of brinkmanship is tilted in its favor. The country is in a nationalist mood; for the man in the street, more concerned with economic issues, the appeal is simple: If other countries can have nuclear power and atom bombs, why can't we? High oil prices and an overstretched U.S. military combine to lessen the West's capacity to react. So too, Iran's leaders think, does Iran's influence with the Shi'ite majority in Iraq and the newly elected Hamas leaders in the Palestinian territories. Getting loud and ugly about Israel earns Iran credibility and support in the Muslim world. And the regime may have decided that thumbing its nose at the nonproliferation treaty and at IAEA inspections is worth the international disapprobation, gambling that its extensive commercial ties with Russia and China will insulate it from punitive Security Council measures.