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Once a container arrives at a terminal, it would have to pass through a nonintrusive inspection unit equipped to detect radiation, interrogate the sensors installed in the box and create a CAT-scan-style image of its contents. This image, along with other sensor data, would be forwarded to all the national customs authorities along the route. Sharing data would allow experts to remotely monitor frontline agents. Knowing that their inspection could be double-checked would make these agents less willing to accept a payoff to look the other way. This extra set of eyes would also provide another chance to detect problems.
Assuming that a ship made it into port without incident, its containers should be selectively spot-checked. Containers should pass through radiation detectors, and a scanned image at the arrival port should be compared with the image taken at the loading port. If the images and sensor data match, it can be safely concluded that the shipment has not been tampered with and it can be released. The containers should then be tracked as they move to their final destination, allowing the ability to intercept the shipment in the face of late-breaking intelligence.
Right now the odds stand at about 10% that our current targeting and inspection practices would detect a device similar to a Russian nuclear warhead surrounded by shielding material. By using a mix of sensors and more vigorous monitoring, we could push the probability of detection into the 90% range. The cost of installing cargo-scanning equipment in all the world's marine container terminals would be $500 million to $600 million, or about the cost of four new F-22 fighters. A container outfitted with sensors and tracking equipment, and certified at its origin, would run approximately $50 per shipment or add 1.5% to the average overseas shipping cost.
WEAPONS IN PLAIN SIGHT: CHEMICAL PLANTS
Our enemies do not need to smuggle chemical weapons into our ports or across our borders. Just as the 9/11 attackers succeeded in converting domestic aircraft into missiles, chemical facilities and the thousands of tons of chemicals that move each day around the U.S. on trucks, trains and barges could be targeted by terrorists to devastating effect. All told, there are about 15,000 chemical plants, refineries and other sites in the U.S. that store large quantities of hazardous materials on their property. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are 709 sites where the toll of death or injury from a catastrophic disaster at a chemical plant could reach from 100,000 to more than 1 million people.