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Infact, Marcos first floated the possibility of early presidential elections at a K.B.L. meeting last August. At the time, the Philippine economy, now described by Filipino economic experts as a "basket case," was already in a severe tailspin. Foreign debt had reached $26 billion, gross national product was shrinking at an annual rate of about 5%, and underemployment was estimated to be 40%. An opinion poll taken by a private think tank with ties to the Roman Catholic Church, however, showed that 44% of the population was willing to credit Marcos and his ruling party with doing a good job. More important, the democratic forces that had been galvanized by the 1983 assassination of Opposition Leader Benigno ("Ninoy") Aquino were in serious disarray. Nonetheless, Marcos shelved the election idea at that time.
Typically, when Marcos made his decision last week, he did so in a way that was fraught with serious constitutional ambiguities. Under the amended constitution, which Marcos first tailored in 1973 to formalize his rule, presidential elections can be called only if the chief executive dies, resigns, is incapacitated or is impeached. Marcos, however, is reluctant to cede his grip on power for the 60 days of the prospective campaign. Accordingly, the election legislation that goes to the National Assembly this week will be accompanied by a formal letter of resignation from Marcos--but it will take effect only after an election winner has been declared. Cracked a presidential aide: "It's tantamount to a postdated check." According to Marcos, that bizarre form of resignation satisfies the constitution's requirement, even if he wins the election. Said the President: "When the constitution says resignation, does it say immediate resignation? It does not."
Marcos' opponents immediately slammed the ploy as unconstitutional and threatened to challenge it before the Supreme Court. The scheme, said Jovito Salonga, a leader of the opposition Liberal Party, was "a masterpiece in absurdity." If they lose the court challenge, as is likely because Marcos has appointed all of the court's 14 justices, opposition leaders will have to decide whether to participate in the election or to boycott it. More realistically, oppositionists hope that a Supreme Court fight will give them more time to organize their political machinery. Twelve opposition parties agreed last June to unite around a single presidential candidate in the event of just such a snap election, but so far only three have done so. If opposition leaders can agree with the K.B.L. on the conditions for holding an election, they will then try to hammer out a common ticket, possibly holding a convention to choose their presidential and vice-presidential nominees.