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Hardest hit around the globe are the Europeans, whose exports are being squeezed by the cheap dollar and equally cheap Chinese yuan, which, to the dismay of global leaders, remains pegged at 8.3 yuan to the dollar. China has a large and growing trade surplus with the U.S., and American and European officials argue that the cheap currency gives the Chinese an unfair advantage. Some Europeans are taking advantage of the robust euro to come to the U.S., where everything from iPods to Gap jeans to four-star-hotel stays are suddenly a bargain. (Bookings are up 30% at Germany's largest tour company, TUI, which has been able to cut trip prices as much as 26%.) But euro-land companies are suffering. Exports from Germany to the U.S. are down 10%. Thierry Desmarest, CEO of French oil giant Total, says the dollar's move over the past two years means "we have practically lost one-third of our earnings." Bic, the French firm that makes disposable shavers, says the weak buck has shaved 75% off its sales growth.
ASIA'S DOLLAR HORDE
Asians are dismayed too, but for different reasons. They are by far the biggest holders of U.S. debt, led by Japan's breathtaking Treasury holdings of $720 billion, followed by China with $174 billion. These sums have been building for years, as Asians, who sell far more goods in the U.S. than the U.S. sells in Asia, have taken their profits and invested in Treasury bonds--all of which are losing value as the dollar slips. At this point, Asians have little choice but to hold on and take their lumps, and not just because the large-scale dumping of dollars would crush the value of their remaining holdings. Shifting out of dollars could also be dangerous for the global economy, pushing the beleaguered currency even lower and triggering sharply higher interest rates in the U.S. That in turn would slow the U.S. economy and depress demand for all those imported goods, potentially triggering a worldwide recession.
Fear of that outcome probably is overblown. Foreign officials understand that the effects of dumping dollars would circle back and cripple their economies. In an interview with TIME, Masatsugu Asakawa, a top Japan Ministry of Finance official, said flatly there will be no dollar dumping. "Our foreign-reserve planning is in terms of 100 years," he said. Holding dollars, "sometimes we enjoy profit. Sometimes we suffer loss. So what?" The point is, it gives Japan flexibility. "Who knows when we might have to intervene to support the yen" after years of supporting the dollar? he asks.