If there is one lesson to be learned from California's wild recall, it is that there is no one lesson. At a moment when the stakes could not have been higher, voters turned out a seasoned if bloodless technocrat and put their faith in an action hero who waved a broom. In an era of interminable campaigns, this one lasted nine weeks. At a time when other politicians hauled around briefcases full of 100-page platforms, Arnold Schwarzenegger spouted lines from his movies, gave no substantive interviews and agreed to exactly one debate, for which he knew the questions in advance.
And finally, just as the know-it-alls started talking up a too-close-to-call Florida-style recount, Schwarzenegger left everyone else in the dust with 49% of the vote. Plucked from a two-part ballot and a 135-candidate field, in what was the largest turnout for a gubernatorial election in more than 20 years, Schwarzenegger's victory could only be described as a landslide. So strong was the final wave in private tracking polls that his top strategist, George Gorton, phoned Schwarzenegger Monday night--10 hours before the polls even opened--and told him, "Arnold, it's all over. It's done. It's through."
Of course, there is the most salient fact of all--that California as an electoral battleground, as in most other things, bears little resemblance to any other place on earth. But California's very uniqueness is the reason the state provides such a perfect Rorschach test for all those looking to convince themselves--and the rest of us--that they are the ideal candidate for the times. Just about everyone who is going to face the voters 13 months from now saw something positive in the results. There are myriad theories as to what the Arnold Effect means--and most of them are true.
1 ANGER CAN BE YOUR FRIEND
The polls in California had been closed for all of seven minutes when Howard Dean issued a statement declaring that the recall had been about neither Governor Gray Davis nor Schwarzenegger but rather "the frustration so many people are feeling about the way things are going." The former Vermont Governor is not the only one who sees parallels between the antiwar fury that has propelled him to the front of the Democratic pack and the economic discontent in California. Once ignited, the anger there could not be tamed. Said apartment manager Arlene Schwab as she got into her car after voting in a Brentwood carpet store: "I never thought in a million years I'd be for a recall, but it does send a message loud and clear--that we the people can do something" about the state's staggering problems.
Davis' pollster, Paul Maslin--who, as it happens, is also Dean's--suggested that what killed one Democrat this year could help all of them in 2004. "Voters are lashing out in frustration at the bad economy and the political system," he said. "The national economy is failing, and the President is out of touch. He should be frightened by today's results."